Saving the Planet

Trading Knowledge for Population Pressure

Population pressure I define as the ratio of the number of individuals times their influence over usable area times resource density:

In some countries people have a large radius of influence (e.g. Canada, Australia) but there are only few people in total, spread over a large usable area with high resource density.  These countries are extremely rich, their population pressure is low.

In others people may have a small radius of influence (e.g. Bangladesh, Egypt) but there are very many people, spread over a very small usable area (notably Egypt) with low resource density (few minerals, few arable zones).  These countries are extremely poor, their population pressure is high.

Some countries with a high pressure get by because of some artificial flow of resources:  in Egypt this is tourism, in other places it is high-value production for export achieved by very low wages.

High population pressure countries have fragile economies.

In other places such as China the high pressure is being offset by temporary booms fueled by both high exports of transformed goods and by highly polluting energy generation.

The traditionally rich countries of the North have accumulated knowledge, know-how and finances.  Know-how is not limited to technology:  it is also very important in human processes such as education, running businesses, social organisation, institutions, legal systems and value systems.

In general countries with low population densities are richer than those with high densities.  But this richess is more or less accidental:  it was built up over centuries to be sure, but not only with labour.  The presence of minerals, a reasonable climate and good value systems played a major role.

England became a world power because of these reasons:

• the system of government was democratic since the Magna Carta days (by democratic I mean that decisions were taken by a changing body of people, not by a single despotic individual, even if that body was an assemblage of nobles),
• technological development was possible because of the availability of iron, coal and water in a single valley (the same place where the first iron bridge was built),
• there was a good system of education in the peaceful setting of an island.

Is it too late?

Yes, probably.  Urgent action is now needed:

• climate change is noticeable, whatever you think
• biodiversity is diminishing
• minerals are used up by growing economies
• pollution by developed world is continuing
• non-farmed food resources are overexploited

What are the problems?

• population growth:  more individuals each year
• increasing radius of influence of each individual because of technical development
• longer influence of each individual because of medical development
• unbalanced education:  too little in the booming economies, wrong type in the developed world
• unbalanced world views and value systems:  archaic in the booming economies, derailing in the developed world
• unbalanced fertility:  too high in the booming economies, not absorbed by migration
• wrong priorities:  wars over archaic issues
• wrong tools:  economic growth valued over change
• unbalanced distibution of power:  intellectual in developed world, productive in developing world

Here are two animations showing the state in 1950 and in 2005.  In each animation the red dot represents a human being, the blueish circle around it represents the radius of influence and the speed of movement the rate of energy consumption.  No wonder we have a problem!

What can we do?

Each economy can contribute:

• rich countries should make all knowledge freely available to developing economies
• developing countries should in return work to diminish their population growth
• rich countries should massively invest in education programmes in the developing world but also in their own people
• developing countries should in return work on their institutions and social structures to improve equality, participation in decision making, diminish corruption.

All together we should arrive at a world-wide legal system to regulate the flows of information, goods, money, people.

Copyright R. Cailliau — robert at robertcailliau dot eu

next planned revision: 2009-11